Nestled between the Pacific Ocean and the Coast Mountains, Vancouver is often hailed as one of the most beautiful cities in the world. But for those who call it home, the reality can be far from idyllic. Vancouver is also facing a mental health crisis, with many residents struggling to cope with the cost and stress of daily life. For those who are unable to find the help they need, the fast track to homelessness can be all too easy.
The mental healthcare system in Vancouver is stretched thin, with long wait times and limited availability of beds and treatment options. And when someone does finally get a chance to receive treatment, it’s often only for a short period of time – typically just a couple of weeks in the mental hospital before they are discharged and sent back out into the world.
This is made all the more difficult by the fact that the only long-term mental institute in the area, Riverview Hospital, was discontinued, torn down, and defunded, sending thousands of people to the Downtown Eastside (DTES) every year. The DTES has become ground zero for Vancouver’s homelessness and addiction problems, with many residents struggling to survive on the streets.
A Data-Driven Approach to Homelessness and Affordability
Our current provincial government champions socialist ideals, but what we truly need is a measurable, scientific and data-driven approach to governance. The management of the COVID-19 pandemic, for example, was a resounding success precisely because it relied on measurable outcomes and key results (OKRs). Decision-makers were able to evaluate, test, and adjust strategies until death rates dropped below acceptable thresholds.
This level of precision is notably absent from our approach to homelessness.
The province’s objective – reducing stigma – is not something that can be easily measured. This has led to a fear of testing new approaches on a small scale and evaluating their cost-effectiveness before rolling them out on a larger scale.
It’s time for Vancouver to stop copying the strategies of Nordic cities and instead embrace first principles thinking. The objective shouldn’t be to simply minimize homelessness, but rather to increase affordability. If we can increase affordability, homelessness will naturally decline.
Overcoming the Housing Supply Bottleneck
Reframing the homeless problem as affordability, boils the problem down to supply and demand, which is much more tangible. The government has long focused on demand-side solutions, such as rent control, taxing foreign buyers and speculators, but these measures are misguided. Rent control reduces rent yield, ultimately decreasing the return for land developers and landowners, reducing supply and increasing prices.
Instead, we need to focus on increasing the supply of housing.
The severity of the supply problem is glaringly apparent when examining the building permit process. In one Metro Vancouver municipality, there is an enormous backlog of new building permit applications, amounting to 40,000 units in the queue for review. With a current capacity to process just 2,000 units per year, it would take fully 20 years to clear this backlog, assuming no new applications come in, which is highly unlikely.
Other cities like Port Moody are voting against increased density, essentially ruling out the construction of multi-story condos. The City of Vancouver, known for its bureaucratic red tape, has its own unique permit rules rather than following provincial guidelines. Newly elected mayor Ken Sim faces an uphill battle in resolving these issues. The lack of media coverage surrounding the permit backlog is concerning, as those with knowledge of the situation often work in government or land development and fear backlash.
Permit approval is notoriously slow, primarily because it is subject to the whims of an eight-member city council, with the mayor wielding the ultimate power. This distributed system suffers from the classic trilemma problem: throughput (amount of applications processed), latency (time to a response), and security (integrity of zoning and neighborhood acceptance). They are all important factors, but city councils tend to prioritize security at the expense of speed. Provincial governments incentivize meeting annual quotas, but these quotas are routinely set too low.
Some progressive municipalities are exploring smart solutions such as pre-approved templates for multi-family units, allowing developers to bypass the lengthy six-month waiting period. However, this is only one part of a broader, multifaceted solution that must be implemented to address the housing crisis effectively.
Leveraging Immigration and Incentives to Increase Housing Affordability
In addition to streamlining the permitting process, we must establish better housing supply objectives. For instance, a comprehensive goal might be to increase housing starts such that they exceed new household formations by 2x until the price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios drop to the OECD median. This approach would require a robust set of key results.
One possible key result would be to ensure that the cost of building a house remains affordable by introducing incentives to lower labour costs and other major input costs. This could be achieved by doubling the number of trade school graduates within five years or providing subsidies to companies that produce materials currently in short supply.
After all, if it costs less to build a home, it could cost us less to buy a home. And we can build more of them.
Another key result to help meet the supply objective could ride on the coattails of Trudeau’s new immigration policy. Canada is now expecting more than 1 million new immigrants per year starting 2025, adding to an existing population of 40 million. A 2.5% annual population growth due to immigration is remarkable in a historical context.
For comparison, during the peak of the Great Wave of Immigration in the United States (1880-1920) and the settlement of the Canadian Prairies in the early 20th century, annual immigration rates ranged from 0.5% to 1.5% of the total population. On one hand, this could place an unprecedented strain on Canadian infrastructure. On the other hand, this influx could also create the perfect opportunity to direct resources towards tackling the root cause of the housing crisis: creating more supply.
The Relationship Between Homelessness, Unaffordability, and Crime
The issue of unaffordability and homelessness is not only a humanitarian crisis but also a significant factor contributing to increased crime rates in cities like Vancouver and across Canada and the United States. The struggle to secure affordable housing, coupled with limited resources for those experiencing homelessness, creates a breeding ground for criminal activities. Desperate for basic necessities such as food, shelter, and safety, some individuals may feel compelled to resort to illegal means to survive.
Statistics reveal a strong correlation between homelessness, unaffordability, and crime rates in Vancouver. The Vancouver Police Department reports that property crime rates in the city increased by 12% in 2022 compared to pre-pandemic figures (2017-2019 average). Serious and aggravated assaults rose by 30% compared to the pre-pandemic average. Other crimes also surged last year, with a 500% increase in anti-Asian incidents, a 114% rise in graffiti mischief, and a 75% jump in reported cybercrime incidents compared to the 2017-2019 average. The cybercrime stats encompass threats to personal safety and financial security, as well as child sexual abuse material.
This uptick in crime coincided with a rise in homelessness, as evidenced by the 2020 Vancouver Homeless Count, which identified a 7% increase in the number of people experiencing homelessness compared to 2019. While correlation does not necessarily imply causation, it is hard to ignore the potential connection between these two trends.
Furthermore, a study conducted by the Canadian Observatory on Homelessness found that individuals experiencing homelessness are more likely to be victims of crime, as well as engage in criminal activities. The study revealed that 35% of those surveyed had been physically assaulted within the past year, and 21% had been involved in illegal activities such as drug dealing, theft, or prostitution.
The consequences of unaffordability and homelessness extend beyond Vancouver, with other cities in Canada also grappling with the repercussions. In Toronto, for example, a 2018 report by the Toronto Police Service showed a 13% increase in violent crime over the previous year. The report also highlighted that Toronto’s homeless population is disproportionately represented among both victims and perpetrators of crime.
A Call for Change: Building a More Affordable, Kinder and Safer Future
Addressing the homelessness and the affordability crisis has far-reaching implications for the overall wellbeing of our society. Millions of law-abiding Canadians suffer in silence, resulting in a low-productivity workforce and hyper-indebted economy.
A society built on unaffordable housing is a leaky funnel: the mentally ill fall into homelessness, and the deviants turn to crime. By solving the issue of affordability, we can alleviate all three of these pressing problems.
The time has come for a radical shift in our approach to homelessness and housing affordability. We must break free from outdated strategies and adopt first principles thinking, as well as embrace innovative, data-driven solutions. By focusing on increasing affordability, streamlining the permit process, and supporting the growth of new housing developments, we can create a brighter future for all Canadians, one where the specter of homelessness no longer looms large.
Let this op-ed serve as a clarion call for change, urging policymakers and the public alike to come together and tackle the crisis head-on. By working together, we can lay the foundation for a brighter, more prosperous future for all Canadians – a future where every individual has a safe, stable, and affordable place to call home.
Do you agree or disagree with the points raised in this op-ed? Share your thoughts in the comments section below. If you believe these issues are worth discussing, please like and share this article. It can really help amplify this message and encourage our elected leaders to listen to the voices of concerned citizens.
Henry Bee is the Co-founder of Vancouver’s CoPilot AI.
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